Hulks know not to blindly look at previous year’s stats to determine rankings, which is the reason why hulks will not be selecting Michael Turner at the top of drafts this year.  ESPN, NFL.com, and FoxSports all have Turner ranked inside the top three.  Not so fast my Friend!  Let’s take a look at the upcoming obstacles Turner faces in 2009.

The Curse of 370

I will start with “The Curse of 370”.  This is the famous analysis by Football Outsiders that, in summary, finds that a RB with 370 carries or more in a season, playoffs included, is very likely to regress the following year.  Advanced NFL Stats even takes the analysis a bit further and provides an in-depth look at why this “curse” comes true.  In the 25 RB seasons consisting of 370 or more carries between the years of 1980 and 2005, several of the RBs suffered injuries the following year. Only 14 of the 25 returned to start 14 or more games the following season.  Turner ended up with 395 carries including playoffs and puts him right in the mix for the classic down year.

The stat that jumped out at me is that of these RBs that carried the ball 370 times or more, there was an average decrease of .5 YPC per RB.  Whether this is due to overuse, natural regression to the mean or a combination of both is debatable.  One thing is certain though; it is hard to ignore this historical data.

Combine the average decline in games played with the average decline in YPC that is likely and Turner is looking at 13 games played and a lackluster 4.0 YPC.  Turner averaged 23.6 carries per game last year.  So his 2009 probable rushing yardage total is 1222 ((23.6 CPG*4 YPC)*13 GP).  This is nearly 500 yards off his 2008 total and this might just be the tip of the iceberg when you also factor in how much tougher the schedule is against the run this year.  

Brutal 2009 Schedule

Turner had his biggest games against truly weak rushing defenses last year.  That is going to change big-time in 2009 because he no longer faces an abundance of bad rush defenses.  Take a look at this chart showing Turner’s game-by-game breakdown:

      
Notice that his huge games of the year came against some of the worst rush defenses in the league AND/OR they were played at home.  I’ll give him credit for the huge game against Carolina in Week 12, but the four TDs inflated his numbers. The game against Tampa I’m not that impressed with because Tampa completely forgot how to tackle running backs late in the year and just came off their most embarrassing defensive performance this decade a week earlier against Carolina.    

This year the Falcons face the AFC East instead of the AFC West.  Exit the pathetic run defenses DEN, KC, SDG, and OAK (Is that not the worst division against the run ever?) and enter NE, MIA, NYJ, and BUF.  None of those AFC East squads are amazing but they are all solid and are significantly better than the AFC West. 

The Falcons also get the NFC East instead of the NFC central this year.  By no means is the NFC central weak against the run but they do have the Lions in the division.  A team Turner bent over the table for 220 yards in Week one.  But there are no “Detroit Lions” in the NFC East.  Turner doesn’t catch a break like that this year.  And the Falcons faced the Rams last year too, probably the worst defense in the league.  There is no easy foe for Turner this year.  This is the hardest schedule against the run in the league.  This schedule probably makes Turner want to take a bath with 9 toasters.

So if you’re with me so far lets get down to the end result.  I don’t believe Turner is worth a top six pick in fantasy drafts.  He is probably still a viable first-rounder if he plays all 16 games. He then should still put up suitable stats but I don’t see any pop (high ceiling) this year.  Turner has never shown he can be a good receiver out of the backfield. So for fantasy owners, there is no security blanket in case of a bad rushing day and there are more bad rushing days to come in 09.  I’m willing to bet against him lasting a full season, or achieving a high YPC.