Using pass defense strength of schedule to determine wide receiver value can often be deceiving.  For example, a team might be a bad pass defense overall but against No. 1 WRs they turn out to be quite good.  An example is the New York Jets.  For yards given up to WRs in 2008 they were middle of the pack at 15, but surprisingly the Jets were second overall against No. 1 WRs.  Pass defenses have strengths and weaknesses. The Jets strength is Darrell Revis, one of the best cornerbacks in the game.

I’m going to take a look at the No. 1 WR strength of schedule for every team in this edition of Under the Microscope.  Here’s the trick though, you cannot disregard a receiver simply because his matchups are tough.  For example, based off final 2008 stats, SD’s No. 1 WR strength of schedule entering 2009 is the toughest in the league.  That should not turn you away from Vincent Jackson because in 2008 he faced the forth toughest No. 1 WR strength of schedule and he did well.  This means his schedule from last year to this year is not changing that much and therefore should not have an impact on his fantasy stats.   

Take a look at the Titans No. 1 WR strength of schedule.  It was tough last year, ninth overall, but in 2009 it gets much easier, 23rd overall.  This means Justin Gage (Titans No. 1 WR) will benefit from a positive rank change.  Just as a positive rank change is good, a negative rank change is bad.    

This means good news for…
 
Randy Moss- The two things holding Moss back last year were losing Tom Brady and seeing fairly tough matchups as a No. 1 WR.  Well those problems are history.  Moss has the most upside of any WR and his floor is as high as Mr. Nice Guy.  There is definitely a legit argument that Moss should be the first WR selected. 
 
Terrell Owens- Last year the Cowboys had the second toughest schedule vs. No. 1 WRs.  Owens now moves to Buffalo where he’ll see the 21st toughest, a huge positive swing.  Owens has certainly shown he makes a splash his first year with a new team.  Trent Edwards recently boasted about Owens’ ability to separate so it appears Owens’ skills haven’t fallen off too far even at the age of 37.  I’m more worried about him missing games due to injury and/or a lack of interest in a lost season than a fall off in production if healthy.
 
T. J. Housh- It is a shame Seattle is primarily a run-first offense because Housh will see looser matchups this year compared to last.  He produced well with Ryan Fitzpatrick as his QB and not to mention the toughest schedule Vs. No. 1 WRs .  A healthy Matt Hasselbeck and an easier difficulty of schedule are both definite upgrades.  Keep an eye on Housh and Hasselbeck’s chemistry this preseason.
 
Donnie Avery- Although it will be a tough transition for Avery to settle into the role as the Ram’s No. 1 target, seeing the second easiest schedule Vs. No. 1 WRs will make the shift much easier.    
 
Ted Ginn Jr- He has plenty going for him going into this season.  Ginn is in his coveted third year as a WR, he sees the second largest positive upswing in No. 1 WR schedule difficulty, and he is supposedly showed improvement during mini-camp.  If Ginn and Avery encompass virtually the same situation and similar skills, why are their average draft positions so dissimilar?  I’m starting to believe Ginn is undervalued.
 
Justin Gage- He possesses the largest positive change in No. 1 WR schedule difficulty.  If he can actually stay healthy, Gage might be a sleeper, but his upside is limited in a run-heavy offense.
 
Josh Morgan- The buzz in SF screams that Morgan will assume the role as the Niners’ No. 1 WR.  We agree, and if Morgan does become San Fran’s first target, he’ll be the beneficiary of the seventh easiest schedule vs. No. 1 WRs.
 
This is bad news for…
 
Brandon Marshall- He sees the largest significant negative change in No. 1 WR schedule difficulty, an obvious downgrade at QB, and also a bad attitude.  Is this too much negative to overcome, even in a contract year?
 
Dwayne Bowe- Also has a major negative swing in No. 1 WR schedule difficulty.  Also, the loss of Tony G. reallocates the major focus of pass defenses towards Bowe.  These measures could offset the positive offseason acquisitions of quarterback Matt Cassell and Head Coach Haley’s pass-oriented scheme.  I’m starting to believe Bowe has less upside than originally perceived, which also means he may be overpriced as a front-end third rounder.
 
Roy Williams- Will step into the role as the Cowboy’s No. 1.  The problem is that the Cowboys own the fifth toughest No. 1 WR strength of schedule.  Not to mention, the ’09 difficulty of schedule is based on last year’s stats.  This means Roy ’s matchups could be worse than expected due to the NFC East’s chief gains of Haynesworth and Usi to their respected teams.  The Skins and Giants pass defenses will gain immensely from better pass rushes, and we already know the Eagles pass D is one of the best.  There needs to be visual and verbal evidence this preseason that Roy is immersed in Jason Garrett’s conglomerate of an offense. But the upside is all there.
 
Santana Moss- Moss has a serious pattern of following a pleasant season with a letdown season.  This is not an intelligent trend, but the fact that Moss sees an uninviting change in No. 1 WR schedule difficulty is enough to keep me from drafting him. 

*If a WR was not commented on, that means their strength of schedule did not change enough to have a probable effect of their fantasy production.  Also, this research is not meant to forecast a bust, but could be helpful in determining a selection between evenly valued WRs during your draft.  

*The strength of schedules were assembled using 2008 No. 1 WR data from Football Outsiders.